Both domestic and overseas tin markets overall show a fluctuating trend at highs Downstream end-users exhibit a strong wait-and-see sentiment [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes, December 8, 2025

The domestic and overseas tin market overall showed a fluctuating trend at highs. On the macro front, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts became the focus, with the probability of a rate cut in December as high as 84.9%, putting the US dollar under pressure and supporting the valuation of US dollar-denominated base metals. Domestically, the tin ore market was weak on both supply and demand, with supply tightening in major producing areas like Yunnan. Most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in December. Demand side, the consumer electronics and home appliance markets were sluggish, with orders significantly reduced. Downstream procurement remained cautious, and high prices noticeably suppressed actual consumption. Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their contribution scale remained small, insufficient to offset the gap left by declining consumption in traditional sectors. Trading in the spot market was sluggish, with downstream end-users only maintaining essential stockpiling amid a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. As the situation in the DRC eased, market concerns over supply disruptions from the mine side gradually diminished. Tin prices may continue to fluctuate at highs in the short term. However, with no clear signs of improvement on either the supply or demand side, upward momentum for tin prices is lacking. Investors need to closely monitor changes in domestic and overseas macroeconomic policies and supply-demand dynamics, adjusting open interest strategies accordingly.